Movies | Oscars 2019 Predictions
The 2019 edition of the Oscars ceremony takes place tonight and I have to admit that I'm not that big of a fan of the whole thing. The Oscars have always felt too much like Hollywood patting itself on the back and telling itself how amazing it is.
I'll go into that further below, but this article is about the predictions, so I'll just get on with it. What I'm going to list will be what I'd like to see win, and what I think will win from what I've seen and heard online. Oh, and I'm doing these awards in the order they appear on the Oscars site, so don't blame me for Best Picture being in the middle of all this!
The categories I will not be listing are Documentary (Feature), Documentary (Short Subject), Foreign Language Film and Short Film (Live Action). I haven't seen any of the nominees in these categories, so would be wasting my time and yours talking about them.
Actor in a Leading Role
Who I Want to Win: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Who I Think Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
I think that Malek has this in the bag because it feels like the Academy are going to want to find some way to honour Bohemian Rhapsody without having to also recognise Bryan Singer.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Who I Want to Win: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Who I Think Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
This is a tricky one, with it coming down to Ali and Richard E. Grant for who I think will actually win based on chatter online, but I haven't seen either Green Book or Can You Ever Forgive Me?, so I have no idea who actually deserves it - I'm just a big fan of Mahershala Ali.
Actress in a Leading Role
Who I Want to Win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Who I Think Will Win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
I was torn between Colman and Lady Gaga for who I want to win, but I don't think the latter's surprisingly excellent performance is quite enough to take down Colman's practically flawless showing.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Who I Want to Win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Who I Think Will Win: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Weisz and Stone could easily have been nominated alongside Colman in the Leading Role category in my opinion - but the Oscars don't allow that, so I think we'll see The Favourite rewarded again here.
Animated Feature Film
Who I Want to Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who I Think Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Is this the most one-sided category of the night? It'll be a genuine shock if Spider-Verse doesn't walk away with this award.
Who I Want to Win: Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
Who I Think Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
I haven't seen Roma, but the one thing that is talked by what seems like everyone who's watched it is just how gorgeous it looks - even if they were didn't like or were indifferent towards the movie itself.
Who I Want to Win: Ruth Carter (Black Panther)
Who I Think Will Win: Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
I would say that this should be a walkover for Black Panther, but it's a comic-book superhero movie, so I think the Academy will fall back on its preferred period costumes.
Who I Want to Win: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Who I Think Will Win: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
BlacKkKlansman was my second favourite movie of 2018 and Lee made it, which is why he'd get my vote, plus I can see the Academy wanting to finally give him some overdue recognition for his past efforts.
Who I Want to Win: Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)
Who I Think Will Win: Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)
I have heard some talk of Bohemian Rhapsody being in contention for this award, which I can't understand at all - and neither can I understand Mission: Impossible - Fallout not even being nominated here.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Who I Want to Win: Joel Harlow, Camille Friend & Kevin Diaz (Black Panther)
Who I Think Will Win: Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney (Vice)
Yes, I know Black Panther wasn't nominated in this category and I simply cannot understand why, as it's so much better than the other nominees here! Vice will win simply for Bale's latest transformation.
Music (Original Score)
Who I Want to Win: Ludwig Goransson (Black Panther)
Who I Think Will Win: Marc Shaiman (Mary Poppins Returns)
I haven't actually heard much talk about this category, so I'm just going to assume that the Oscars will again pay tribute to 'classic' Hollywood and give Poppins the win. Why Lorne Balfe wasn't nominated for his utterly incredible Mission: Impossible - Fallout score I'll never know.
Music (Original Song)
Who I Want to Win: Shallow (A Star is Born)
Who I Think Will Win: Shallow (A Star is Born)
My single favourite moment of any movie in the last year was when Gaga's character first sings Shallow on stage in A Star is Born. I think it's going to be between Shallow and All the Stars here, and expect Gaga to just edge it.
Who I Want to Win: BlacKkKlansman
Who I Think Will Win: The Favourite
Due to the absence of Mission: Impossible - Fallout, my pick defaults to the next best film I saw in the last year with BlacKkKlansman. I think the Academy will go for either The Favourite or Green Book here, recognising Roma in the Foreign Language Film category to avoid 'snubbing' it.
Who I Want to Win: Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart (Black Panther)
Who I Think Will Win: Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas (First Man)
I have a distaste for awarding people who are simply re-creating something that already existed, so I hope the imagination and creativity that went into realising Wakanda is appropriately awarded.
Short Film (Animated)
Who I Want to Win: Bao
Who I Think Will Win: Bao
Honestly, Bao is the only one of the nominees that I've seen and it's the only one I've seen talked about online - the latter annoying some who see this as Pixar and/or Disney 'buying' the award.
Who I Want to Win: Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan (First Man)
Who I Think Will Win: Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan (First Man)
While I wasn't a huge fan of the movie, you can't question First Man's technical prowess, especially its impeccable sound work, which should see it win this category relatively comfortably.
Who I Want to Win: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis (First Man)
Who I Think Will Win: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis (First Man)
Pretty much the same as above, although I can see Bohemian Rhapsody or A Star is Born coming into contention here - hopefully the latter if First Man doesn't win.
Who I Want to Win: Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick (Avengers: Infinity War)
Who I Think Will Win: Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm (First Man)
Honestly, Infinity War should walk away with this category just for Thanos. However, like the Costume Design category and Black Panther, I can see the Academy playing it safe here too.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Who I Want to Win: Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Who I Think Will Win: Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
This is another category that seems like anyone could win it, so I can see the Academy thinking of this as a consolation prize for Jenkins.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Who I Want to Win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
Who I Think Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Not to say that Hollywood undervalues writers (although it definitely does), but I can see the Academy also using this category as a consolation prize for a writer-director and giving Cuarón a hat-trick of statuettes for the night.
The Oscars have always felt quite insular and - that dreaded word - elitist. Awards ceremonies for other forms of media are very much along the same line, but at least they seem to recognise and promote the influence their particular medium can have on the wider world and reward those that do this the best.
Now, I'm not saying that awards should be solely based on popular opinion, but it should certainly influence the outcome to some degree. As an example, The Shape of Water won best picture at the 2018 Oscars, yet - mocking parodies aside - it hasn't been talked about all that much in the time since.
I'll admit that I haven't seen that movie and so can't comment on its quality - although with it being a Guillermo del Toro movie I have faith that it's probably going to be pretty damned good - but should a movie that those outside the industry pretty much forgot existed in a matter of months really be declared Best Picture?
It's easy to argue the other way and say the Oscars are simply judging each nominee on its own merits and nothing more, but that leads to the above-mentioned feeling that the Oscars don't reflect the massive, massive super-majority of movie-watchers around the world and makes Hollywood movie-making comes across as elitist.
Music awards tend to rightly appreciate those who influenced massive audiences, influencing pop culture and capturing the zeitgeist with songs getting played months, if not years after their release. TV awards reward those that kept their audiences hooked for weeks and months while being broadcast, and having people eagerly anticipating the next season, the home video release or when it becomes available to stream.
Games awards again tend to go to those games that completely enrapture an audience and hook the players into completing a title multiple times over, even if that is over years. Effectively, all of these industries reward those that widen the horizons of their business and attract more and more people to not only become new fans, but deepen interest in those forms of media.
The Oscars? The majority of winners won't really achieve that at all. Again, not to disparage the quality of these movies, but how wide an audience do you think The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist or The King's Speech will influence? How many people were converted into film fans after watching?
That's the list of Best Picture winners since 2010 and their combined cultural impact is - again, parodies not included - negligible at best. Why would an industry not want to show off just how powerful and influential it can be on the wider world rather than patting itself on the back and not paying attention to movies people will actually remember?
The 'Popular' category idea was dumb, but at least it showed that the Academy knows that something needs to be done. Maybe as more - younger - people are invited to vote, we might finally see the industry recognise those who are influencing people into becoming movie fans with the quality of their work get the rewards their efforts deserve.
Oh, and how about awards for best casting and best stunt choreography while they're at it? Would be nice to see all areas of the industry recognised, not just those the Academy deem worthy.